Author: Mayank Bubna

JUBA, South Sudan -- As I walked into Bentiu’s state hospital last week, I expected it to be overcrowded with wounded civilians who had fled the most recent onslaught between the SPLA and Peter Gadet’s forces in Mankien. But I could not find one such person. Instead it was bustling with soldiers getting their battle-scars dressed. “No person without an SPLA uniform is allowed to escape Mayom,” said one man, referring to a western county in Sudan’s Unity state where militia fighting has been rampant. “There are no civilians in Mayom, only rebels.” ...

With less than 70 days left until southerners hoist a new national flag, the optimism in South Sudan of heralding a new beginning has been beset with the perennial problem of armed non-state actors. In Unity state, dealing with the cyclical violence since the April elections last year has become particularly foreboding for the southern government ...

As troops from both the SAF and SPLA continue to swell in the Abyei region, U.N. peacekeepers there face perhaps their toughest test yet to try and contain a potential North-South war. Judging from internal U.N. reports and recent interviews on the ground, inaction in Abyei has cost the U.N. peacekeepers precious credibility with the local population that once lost will be very difficult to regain ...

In writings on Abyei, there is often the assumption that the Misseriya and Dinka Ngok groups who have a stake in the region speak as one, or are spoken for by the handful of Misseriya and Dinka political “leaders” that are quoted in the media. In reality, there are gaps between the thinking of government representatives in the two capitals and their “loyalists” on the ground ...

Testimony collected through interviews conducted by Enough among displaced Ngok Dinka communities in the region illustrate the human impact of the ongoing stalemate over Abyei. The interviews also demonstrate pervasiveness of the perception among Ngok Dinka that SAF forces and allied militias, acting on orders of the northern government, are intent on eliminating them – if not by killing them, then by forcing them off the land for good. These fears reveal just how far trust has deteriorated in Abyei, raising the likelihood of continued conflict ...

As South Sudan edges toward independence in July 2011, Abyei remains a critical flashpoint for conflict, as demonstrated by the recent intentional burning of villages by forces reportedly aligned with the northern government, and the displacement of 20,000 residents ...

In the aftermath of recent flare-ups in Upper Nile between South Sudan’s army and southern militias, the southern government has quickly blamed its northern counterparts for the ongoing instability. And while northern complicity should be investigated, the strategy of the southern army vis à vis militias is also worth a look. The SPLA has decided to take on a more pre-emptive role rather than being on the defensive, as they were in recent months when they worked to entice splinter factions to come into the fold ahead of the referendum ...

Upper Nile police and SPLA forces clashed with militia men led by Commander Olony in the state capital of Malakal over the weekend. As the conflict theater expands and becomes increasing inaccessible to the United Nations and humanitarian organizations, details about culpability and the impact on civilians are difficult to ascertain ...

This report, based on extensive interviews conducted in Upper Nile state in January and February 2011, provides an overview of the state of play among South Sudan’s militias, which continue to be a critical challenge to securing a peaceful separation between North and South Sudan, and to the formation of a stable new state ...

Time will tell, but it is hard to be optimistic that the recent apparent goodwill on the part of the negotiating parties is as forthright as it seems. The range of agendas found within the Misseriya and Dinka communities themselves further complicates implementation of the agreement ...