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What is Bashir’s next move?

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What is Bashir’s next move?

Posted by Maggie Fick on February 14, 2009

Via UN Dispatch, a New York Times video from July 2008, after the International Criminal Court’s Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo applied for an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir. As you might recall, shortly following this announcement, Bashir launched an international “charm offensive” which even included some PR stunts in Darfur, including this rally:


I bring this up now not only because I wanted to share this bizarre and unsettling video in case you missed it last summer, but also to raise a question that we at Enough—along with many other analysts—have been puzzling over: What is Bashir’s next move?

I don’t have a magic eight ball, but here are some scenarios we have been throwing around the office:

Will Bashir continue his charm offensive?
Will he “bluster and retreat”?
Will he opt for confrontation with the international community?
Or will he be pushed from power by internal forces in Khartoum?

Learn more in Enough’s statement from Thursday, “What the Warrant Means: Justice, Peace, and the Key Actors in Sudan.” I’d also love to hear your thoughts on this question and the scenarios above, please comment below.

Also, Foreign Policy’s Elizabeth Allen interviewed the Chief Prosecutor yesterday. Moreno-Ocampo’s closing sentiment was my favorite part:

We are witnessing the first massive crime of genocide in the 21st century and for the last five years we did nothing efficient to stop to the crimes. We are providing material assistance, yes. That is great; it’s saving the lives of 2 million people. But it’s not enough. The United States, as a member, has a responsibility also.